Washington, DC., 21 September 2025—
The US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas went into effect in Gaza on 10 October. Key elements of the agreement included Israel pulling forces to the agreed lines inside Gaza. Hamas said it would release all remaining hostages and hand over the bodies of deceased hostages. There was to be a massive surge in humanitarian aid allowed into Gaza, shipments of food, medicine, fuel, water, and the opening of border crossings, especially the Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza. On paper, the deal held promise: an end to large-scale hostilities and a humanitarian lifeline. However, Israel has renewed strikes in Gaza, amid the ceasefire.
Ceasefire Breaches and Renewed Attacks
Within 24 hours of the truce, Israel returned to shelling in Gaza, killing dozens of Palestinians. By 19 October, Israel launched airstrikes across Gaza in response to what it said was an attack by Hamas that killed two Israeli soldiers near Rafah. Hamas has denied responsibility for the incident and insists it remains committed to the ceasefire.
Likewise, Israel says it too is committed to the truce, but it will continue to respond with extreme force to what it considers violations. To that point, Israel has committed dozens of ceasefire violations already, including shelling, arrests, and gunfire. Some Israeli ministers are signaling that if the hostages’ bodies are not returned and Hamas does not sufficiently comply, operations may resume more broadly. Meanwhile, Israel’s Ben-Gvir rejects the ceasefire outright and demands that Prime Minister Netanyahu return to intense fighting.
Humanitarian Concerns
The renewed strikes have immediate human costs. The 19 October airstrikes killed at least 44 people and injured many more. According to humanitarian groups in Gaza, Israel has violated the ceasefire 51 times, killing at least 97 Palestinians and wounding more than 250.
Beyond the lives lost, aid access remains fragile. Israel pledged 600 trucks per day, but has cut the deliveries to 300 trucks per day, which aid agencies say is “critically insufficient.” Israel justifies restrictions by pointing to the failure of Hamas to return all the bodies of Israeli hostages, saying that until that condition is met, certain crossings remain closed, and aid is constrained. That is the definition of collective punishment.
The humanitarian crisis in Gaza remains acute. Children, displaced people, shelters, and homes continue to be hit during the supposed ceasefire. Many hospitals are still partially functioning, and populations are facing famine risk. The gap between what was promised and what is happening is wide. If the strikes continue, aid and rebuilding will be further delayed. Civilians remain extremely vulnerable.
Gaza’s population is facing severe shortages of food, water, fuel, and medical supplies. The UN warns that unless crossings are opened and aid is scaled up, famine is imminent. The destruction of infrastructure over the years means logistics are already difficult; add in border crossing restrictions, and the problem is compounded.
As the occupying/de facto controller of parts of the territory and the borders, Israel has obligations under international humanitarian law to facilitate aid. Using aid or border access as leverage or punishment raises serious concerns about collective punishment and possibly war crime implications. Further, the repeated violations of the ceasefire undermine trust and erode the credibility of mediation efforts.
Political and Strategic Factors
Similar to the previous ceasefire agreement, the current ceasefire deal included multi-phase elements: hostages, detainees, withdrawal of Israeli forces, and humanitarian rebuilding efforts. However, more than ten days in, and key primary elements remain contested.
What is clear is that the ceasefire is extremely fragile. Even while officially in place, incidents of violence, arrests, shelling, and strikes continue. The observing world witnessed the same behavior during the last ceasefire in January 2025. Israel continued to strike Gaza, killing dozens, despite the ceasefire in place. By the time Phase 2 began in March 2025, Israel had resumed large-scale air strikes, killing hundreds, effectively declaring the truce over.
Unresolved Issues
A ceasefire does not resolve the root causes: governance of Gaza, security guarantees, reconstruction, the future of hostages, military disarmament of militant groups, and Palestinian statehood. These unresolved issues are flashpoints. Additional issues include violations and provocations that feed into retaliation. Israel says Hamas provoked its response. Hamas denies the provocation or says it didn’t sanction it. Each side uses these incidents to justify action.
Israeli leadership faces domestic political pressure to maintain leverage; Hamas faces internal pressure about legitimacy and governance in Gaza. The fragile calm is vulnerable to shock incidents. The ceasefire cannot be taken as a full end to violence; rather, it is a pause with conditions. The risk of escalation is high: a major strike or provocation could collapse the truce altogether and revert to full-scale war.
For Israel, continuing operations while publicly under a ceasefire risks diplomatic isolation or blowback. For mediators – the US, Egypt, Qatar, and others – the failure to fully implement the humanitarian and access parts of the deal diminishes faith in future deals. The broader peace process is jeopardized if the humanitarian and access commitments are not honored. The incentive for Hamas to abide by the plan collapses. And then it is back to square one.
Although this has been called a “peace plan,” the fact is that it is a ceasefire. A ceasefire is not the same as peace. A ceasefire – getting all sides to put down their weapons and tend to the civilians trapped in the middle- is the first stage to peace.
The Gaza ceasefire is fragile and conditional. Unless underlying issues are addressed, the ceasefire is likely to be short-lived and punctuated by violence. But if the ceasefire holds and all the various phases have been worked through – and Palestinians finally get their right to self-determination – then there will be “peace.”
Photo Credit: Israeli destruction in Sikali Street, Khan Yunis, Gaza War 23-25 by Rawanmurad 2025. Licensed under CC BY 4.0
Lara Kajs is the founder and executive director of The Genocide Report, an NGO nonprofit organization in Washington, DC. She is the author of Beyond the Veil: Afghan Women and Girls’ Journey to Freedom (forthcoming), Assad’s Syria, and Stories from Yemen: A Diary from the Field, available in e-book, paperback, and hardcover at Amazon, Barnes and Noble, Apple Books, and independent bookstores worldwide. Distributed by Ingram. Ms. Kajs frequently speaks about atrocity crimes, forced displacement, state terrorism, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL). Follow and connect with Lara Kajs on Facebook, Instagram, X, LinkedIn, and Bluesky.